Iran's Presidential Race: A Conservative Stronghold

Iran is set to hold a new presidential election on June 28, following the tragic death of President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash. The final candidates reveal a strong conservative tilt.

Published June 11, 2024 - 00:06am

9 minutes read
Iran
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Tehran: Iran on Sunday announced the six candidates, mostly conservatives, approved for the June 28 election to replace President Ebrahim Raisi, who was killed in a helicopter crash.

The candidates announced by the interior ministry were selected from 80 registered hopefuls by the Guardian Council, which oversees elections in the Islamic republic. Among those approved are the conservative speaker of parliament Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and the ultraconservative former nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili. Just one reformist candidate, Massoud Pezeshkian, who is a lawmaker representing Tabriz in Iran's parliament, has been approved.

The conservative former interior minister Mostafa Pourmohammadi has also been authorised to run. Others on the list include conservative Tehran mayor Alireza Zakaani and incumbent vice president Amirhossein Ghazizadeh-Hashemi, the ultraconservative head of the Martyrs' Foundation.

Former hardline president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who was previously disqualified from entering the presidential races in 2017 and 2021, was again excluded from the list. Others including moderate ex-parliament speaker Ali Larijani and Vahid Haghanian, a former commander in Iran's Revolutionary Guards, were also barred from standing.

As the June 28 election date approaches, Iran finds itself at a crucial juncture. The nation is experiencing heightened internal and regional challenges. Domestically, there is a palpable sense of anticipation and uncertainty, while regionally, the Iran-Israel conflict has evolved into open, direct military confrontations. The departure of Raisi, a significant political figure known for his loyalty to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, has intensified these dynamics.

The Guardian Council, which is dominated by conservatives, has once again drawn criticism for its bias in the vetting process. The list it approved heavily favors conservative figures who are known for their loyalty to the supreme leader. This has marginalized reformist voices and resulted in a list that includes prominent hard-liners such as Qalibaf, Jalili, and Zakani.

Qalibaf, currently the speaker of Iran's parliament and a former commander of the Revolutionary Guards, is making his fourth presidential bid. He has previously lost in 2005 and 2013 and withdrew in 2017 to prevent splitting the conservative vote. Jalili, a former nuclear negotiator, is also a key contender, known for his staunch allegiance to Khamenei and close association with prominent cleric Ahmad Alamolhoda.

The reformist camp, meanwhile, faces significant challenges. Their candidates have been continuously disqualified, leading to internal disarray. The approval of Pezeshkian appears to be a strategic move to boost voter turnout and give the election a semblance of competitiveness. However, there is skepticism about whether Pezeshkian, who is relatively unknown, can garner enough support to challenge the conservative dominance.

Despite former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's significant popularity, he has been disqualified once again. His public disagreements with Khamenei and criticism of the religious establishment have led to his sidelining.

The overarching objective of the regime appears to be the selection of a candidate who aligns with Khamenei's agenda and can withstand regional and international pressures. Figures like Qalibaf, with the backing of the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, are seen as favorable candidates who can uphold the supreme leader's policies, particularly regarding Iran's nuclear program. However, the dynamic nature of Iranian politics means that last-minute changes can occur, making the final outcome of the presidential race uncertain until it is formally announced.

Tehran: Iran on Sunday announced the six candidates, mostly conservatives, approved for the June 28 election to replace President Ebrahim Raisi, who was killed in a helicopter crash.

The candidates announced by the interior ministry were selected from 80 registered hopefuls by the Guardian Council, which oversees elections in the Islamic republic. Among those approved are the conservative speaker of parliament Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and the ultraconservative former nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili. Just one reformist candidate, Massoud Pezeshkian, who is a lawmaker representing Tabriz in Iran's parliament, has been approved.

The conservative former interior minister Mostafa Pourmohammadi has also been authorised to run. Others on the list include conservative Tehran mayor Alireza Zakaani and incumbent vice president Amirhossein Ghazizadeh-Hashemi, the ultraconservative head of the Martyrs' Foundation.

Former hardline president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who was previously disqualified from entering the presidential races in 2017 and 2021, was again excluded from the list. Others including moderate ex-parliament speaker Ali Larijani and Vahid Haghanian, a former commander in Iran's Revolutionary Guards, were also barred from standing.

As the June 28 election date approaches, Iran finds itself at a crucial juncture. The nation is experiencing heightened internal and regional challenges. Domestically, there is a palpable sense of anticipation and uncertainty, while regionally, the Iran-Israel conflict has evolved into open, direct military confrontations. The departure of Raisi, a significant political figure known for his loyalty to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, has intensified these dynamics.

The Guardian Council, which is dominated by conservatives, has once again drawn criticism for its bias in the vetting process. The list it approved heavily favors conservative figures who are known for their loyalty to the supreme leader. This has marginalized reformist voices and resulted in a list that includes prominent hard-liners such as Qalibaf, Jalili, and Zakani.

Qalibaf, currently the speaker of Iran's parliament and a former commander of the Revolutionary Guards, is making his fourth presidential bid. He has previously lost in 2005 and 2013 and withdrew in 2017 to prevent splitting the conservative vote. Jalili, a former nuclear negotiator, is also a key contender, known for his staunch allegiance to Khamenei and close association with prominent cleric Ahmad Alamolhoda.

The reformist camp, meanwhile, faces significant challenges. Their candidates have been continuously disqualified, leading to internal disarray. The approval of Pezeshkian appears to be a strategic move to boost voter turnout and give the election a semblance of competitiveness. However, there is skepticism about whether Pezeshkian, who is relatively unknown, can garner enough support to challenge the conservative dominance.

Despite former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's significant popularity, he has been disqualified once again. His public disagreements with Khamenei and criticism of the religious establishment have led to his sidelining.

The overarching objective of the regime appears to be the selection of a candidate who aligns with Khamenei's agenda and can withstand regional and international pressures. Figures like Qalibaf, with the backing of the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, are seen as favorable candidates who can uphold the supreme leader's policies, particularly regarding Iran's nuclear program. However, the dynamic nature of Iranian politics means that last-minute changes can occur, making the final outcome of the presidential race uncertain until it is formally announced.

Further adding to the anticipation surrounding the election is the significant role of the Iranian economy, which has been severely strained by international sanctions and the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Candidates have had to address economic recovery as a cornerstone of their campaigns, proposing plans to alleviate the hardships faced by ordinary Iranians. This economic context sets the stage for potentially heated debates and diverging strategies on how best to navigate the nation out of its current economic malaise.

In addition, Iran's foreign policy, particularly its contentious relationship with the United States and its nuclear ambitions, remains a pivotal issue. The election results will likely influence the direction of Iran's approach to the 2015 nuclear deal, known formally as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). While some candidates advocate for a hardline stance and self-sufficiency, others suggest a more pragmatic approach that might include renegotiations to ease sanctions.

Iranian society is also grappling with pressing social issues, including demands for greater freedoms and transparency. The conservative candidates, aligning closely with the supreme leader, tend to endorse traditional values and restrictive policies. In contrast, reformist voices, even though marginalized, continue to push for incremental social and political changes. The outcome of the election could thus have far-reaching implications not just in politics, but in shaping the societal fabric of Iran.

Meanwhile, the role of young voters cannot be understated. With Iran's median age being around 30, the youth, who are often disillusioned with the stagnation and lack of opportunities, represent a critical demographic. Their engagement, or lack thereof, might tip the scales in favor of one candidate or another. In an election already fraught with implications, the participation levels among the youth could serve as a bellwether for the country's future trajectory.

Notably, international observers and regional neighbors are closely monitoring the developments in Iran. The nation's political climate is viewed as a significant factor influencing broader Middle Eastern dynamics. Countries like Saudi Arabia and Israel have vested interests in the outcome, given the potential ramifications for regional security and diplomatic relations.

As Iran approaches the pivotal election date, the balance of power, the direction of future policies, and the stability of the regime hang in the balance. The political entity that ascends to power will face an array of challenges, from economic recovery and managing domestic discontent to navigating complex international relations. The forthcoming weeks will be critical as candidates ramp up their campaigns, seeking support from various factions within Iranian society, all while the world watches closely.

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